Thursday, December 23, 2010
Research objective
Improve POAMA’s weather predictions 2–4 weeks ahead to make them more useful to agriculture and water-management industries.
Project duration
2009 – 2012
Progress to date
We have completed an initial assessment of the multi-week forecast skill for Australian rainfall and temperature with the POAMA-1.5 hindcast (where past events are modelled and outputs compared against actual results).
We are developing a strategy to deliver these multi-week forecasts routinely and this is being considered by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Work is also underway to determine:
- the main modes of predictability on multi-week timescales
- the ability of dynamical modelling to predict heatwaves
- the influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the multi-week timescale
Research contact
Dr Debbie Hudson
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Phone: 03 9669 4796