Improving multi-week predictions

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Research objective

Improve POAMA’s weather predictions 2–4 weeks ahead to make them more useful to agriculture and water-management industries.

Project duration

2009 – 2012

Progress to date

We have completed an initial assessment of the multi-week forecast skill for Australian rainfall and temperature with the POAMA-1.5 hindcast (where past events are modelled and outputs compared against actual results).

We are developing a strategy to deliver these multi-week forecasts routinely and this is being considered by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Work is also underway to determine:

  • the main modes of predictability on multi-week timescales
  • the ability of dynamical modelling to predict heatwaves
  • the influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the multi-week timescale

Research contact

Dr Debbie Hudson

Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

D.Hudson@bom.gov.au

Phone: 03 9669 4796