Thursday, 13 September 2012
Improve POAMA’s weather predictions 2–4 weeks ahead to make them more useful to agriculture and water-management industries.
2009 – 2012
Progress to date
We have completed an initial assessment of the multi-week forecast skill for Australian rainfall and temperature with the POAMA-1.5 hindcast (where past events are modelled and outputs compared against actual results).
We are developing a strategy to deliver these multi-week forecasts routinely and this is being considered by the Bureau of Meteorology.
Work is also underway to determine:
- the main modes of predictability on multi-week timescales
- the ability of dynamical modelling to predict heatwaves
- the influence of the Southern Annular Mode on the multi-week timescale
Our research has shown that the new POAMA-2 system produces more skilful and reliable multi-week forecasts of Australian rainfall and temperature compared to POAMA-1.5.
The same is true of predictions of key drivers of multi-week variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode.
This is a valuable step forward for POAMA, particularly since MCV-funded enhancements made to the system to improve the multi-week forecasts are also beneficial to the seasonal forecasts.
In the last few months of the project, we are continuing to add to and refine the multi-week experimental products on the POAMA website.
Dr Debbie Hudson
Phone: 03 9669 4796