Completed projects

Improving forecast accuracy with improved Indian Ocean initialisation

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

We included new ocean observations in predictions of the model for Indian Ocean Dipole development and accounted for ocean–atmosphere coupling. We compared the skill with other international models. We trialled several initialisation improvements, which is believed to be leading-edge research. Real-time analysis products are now available on the POAMA website.

Northern Australia monsoon prediction

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

The North Australian Wet Season Onset webpages has a brief description of the project details and can be found at the POAMA Experimental website. The new wet season onset webpage for real-time forecasts is now also available. This project aimed to improve the simulation and the prediction by rainfall-related products for agriculture in tropical Australia, focusing on wet-season onset and on monsoon bursts and breaks.

Assessing and managing heat stress in cereals

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

Most growers understand that the main management strategy to minimise heat events is to optimise the flowering window through sowing time and variety choice. The challenge is to characterise this risk in terms of likelihood and consequence. We investigated the meteorology and climatology of spring heat events on the southern grains wheat belt and developed a risk-management package for growers.

Understanding frost risk in a variable and changing climate

Wednesday, April 30th, 2014

We mproved our understanding of the variability and changing nature of frost risk at both seasonal and decadal scales for the southern regions of Australia, and benchmarked implications for the wine and grain industries.

Climate change and variability: Assessing regional impacts of sugarcane production

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

Management practices being promoted to Queensland sugarcane growers have been found to reduce nitrogen loss from the paddock by 66%, even under future climate change scenarios.

Improving multi-week predictions

Thursday, September 13th, 2012

Experimental multi-week forecast products are now available on the Bureau’s POAMA website.

Climate drivers and synoptic features – New South Wales, Northern Territory and Tasmania

Thursday, December 23rd, 2010

The climate drivers for New South Wales, the Northern Territory and Tasmania have been analysed and documented and are published on Climate Kelpie.

The climate drivers for South Australia, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland have been revised and the changes have been published on Climate Kelpie.

Extremes, climate modes and reanalysis-based approaches to agricultural resilience

Thursday, December 23rd, 2010

Further research on the use of the 20CRP data for agricultural insurance and seasonal forecasting is needed as development of the database continues.

Critical thresholds (tipping points) and climate change impacts/adaptation in horticulture

Thursday, December 23rd, 2010

Case studies have been developed for a number of crops and are being published here as they become available.

Improving seasonal forecasts for south-west Western Australia

Thursday, December 23rd, 2010

We have improved our forecasting skill at using the Indian Ocean as a climate driver.

Modelling has shown the trade-off between sowing date and frost risk. Frost forecasts may only be of value in areas where there is small yield potential with delayed sowing and where there is a high frost risk.

The risk of frost is significantly affected when there are large monthly or seasonal temperature deviations during a particularly warm or cold season.